Here is the SIG presentation.
We will continue our new format of looking at multiple topics, driven by the interest of the group. Queued up are: Jeremy Grantham’s market outlook. Are bonds going to outperform stock? The new bond equation. What the heck IS a bond? How to pick a financial advisor. How to build a portfolio wisely and safely. How to make money investing in the bubble before it bursts.
Today we have an "open forum" and cover a menagerie of topics of current interest. We’ll take a look at current market valuations, the "Golden Cross", the "New Normal", what it takes to retire today, and anything the group wants to take up.
On Saturday, 14 March the Getting Started SIG will present:
We revisit valuation measures we have applied to the market in the past, as well as various forecasts of impending booms and crashes currently in vogue. Are we near a bottom, or headed down to zero on the Dow? Will the real P/E please stand up?
Click here to view a PowerPoint slideshow of the presentation
Financial advisers often tell us that a) investment reward is proportional to risk and b) it is impossible to successfully time the market; therefore, we should buy and hold (especially the investment products they are selling). But over a complete market cycle (10 years or more) there are identifiable conditions when small risks earn generous rewards and other conditions when large risks go unrewarded. We look at the historical evidence and derive a practical guide for scaling our risk exposure in response to observable market conditions; when to stick our necks out snapping up equities, and when to sit patiently in our shells munching on CDs
On Saturday, 11 October the Getting Started SIG will present:
“Investing for Value in Range-Bound Markets”
Bear got you down? We’ll cover a value-based strategy suited for today’s (and tomorrow’s) secular bear market. The presentation summarizes Vitaliy Katsenelson’s book “Active Value Investing: Making Money in Range-Bound Markets“.
You may view an online slideshow or download the PowerPoint file.
This book provides a good overview of market cycles and makes the case that for the next several years we face a “range-bound” market. I.E., the indexes will trade in a range and not grow at historical rates. Katsenelson covers a systematic approach to vaule investing, a strategy to profit when markets are range bound.
One of the most significant challenges facing today’s active investor is how to make money during the times when markets are going nowhere. Bookshelves are groaning under the weight of titles written on investment strategy in bull markets, but there is little guidance on how to invest in range bound markets. In this book, author and respected investment portfolio manager Vitaliy Katsenelson makes a convincing case for range-bound market conditions and offers readers a practical strategy for proactive investing that improves profits. This guide provides investors with the know-how to modify the traditional, fundamentally driven strategies that they have become so accustomed to using in bull markets, so that they can work in range bound markets. It offers new approaches to margin of safety and presents terrific insights into buy and sell disciplines, international investing, “Quality, Valuation, and Growth” framework, and much more.
Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA (Denver, CO) has been involved with the investment industry since 1994. He is a portfolio manager with Investment Management Associates where he co-manages institutional and personal assets utilizing fundamental analysis. Katsenelson is a member of the CFA Institute, has served on the board of CFA Society of Colorado, and is also on the board of Retirement Investment Institute. Vitaliy is an adjunct faculty member at the University of Colorado at Denver – Graduate School of Business. He is also a regular contributor to the Financial Times, The Motley Fool, and Minyanville.com.
”How Low Can It Go?”
Think the market has bottomed? Think again. We review the metrics that say we’re not even half way there. But on a brighter note we’ll look at value-based investment strategies designed for the stuck-in-the-mud market we anticipate over the next several years.
PowerPoint slide show: click How Low Can It Go
Presentation on use of Cash Flow in investment analysis, 14 June 2008
View or download this PowerPoint slideshow
The total return of the S&P 500 is now a few weeks shy of having lagged riskless Treasury bills for a decade. Against this backdrop, … a secular bear is self-evident. It’s difficult to imagine how the market could be characterized any other way when, despite recent bull market highs, the S&P 500 has lagged Treasury bills for a decade.
Thinking about it more carefully, my impression is that investors are averse to the idea of a “secular bear market” because it implies something about the future. For stocks to be priced to deliver disappointing future returns, after already suffering a decade of disappointing returns, seems too extraordinary to consider.
But that’s exactly what we should expect. ….
More at Hussman Funds – Weekly Market Comment: Secular Bears – February 25, 2008
Hussman: Recession, Far More Foreclosures, and Eventually, Commodity Weakness
Thursday, March 13th, 2008More at Hussman Funds – Weekly Market Comment
Tags: Forecasts, Hussman, Valuation
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